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IN THE TROPICS

Tropical storm Danny develops

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By David Hawkins

dhawkins@keysreporter.com

Posted - Thursday, September 17, 2009 11:54 AM EDT

The three-day forecast track for tropical storm Danny issued on Wednesday, Aug. 26 at 11 a.m.

As expected, a disturbance east of the Bahamas has developed into the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2009 hurricane season.

At 11 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said the center of Tropical Storm Danny was at 24.9 north, 70.3 west. That's 445 miles east of Nassau in the Bahamas and about 775 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.

The storm is moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph.

No storm watches or warnings were issued with the 11 a.m. reports. The NHC will issue updates at 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. Wednesday.

The current weather pattern "should steer Danny generally northwestward" with the storm slowing some in the next day and a half, forecasters said.

Still, the NHC official advisory says, "Interests in the Bahamas and the Southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Danny."

Computer models agree that low pressure areas over the Great Lakes region and the Gulf Coast states "should cause Danny to turn northward and then recurve into the westerlies," which would take the storm away from the U.S. Coast, NHC forecasters said on Wednesday.

However, differences in the track forecasts by the various computer models "make it uncertain what land area Danny may affect," the 11 a.m. forecast discussion says.

The full text of the NHC 11 a.m. public advisory is shown below.

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

For official storm information and warnings, see the NHC site at www.nhc.noaa.gov

Weather links

The National Hurricane Center

National Weather Service forecast office for the Keys

Florida Keys current hazards page

Florida Keys current conditions — weather observations page

Molasses Reef Bouy — offshore conditions buoy network

Key West radar — NEXRAD composite loop

Miami radar — NEXRAD composite loop

Tropical Weather Outlook — TPC/NHC weather discussion text