Weather
U.S. forecasters predict near-normal number of storms
Scientists expect 7 to 11 storms in rest of season
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Almost nothing has developed in the tropics this summer, but don’t let your guard down, because even a below-normal season can bring devastation.
That’s the message from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which issued an updated hurricane season outlook on Thursday, Aug. 6.
NOAA scientists expect this hurricane season, which officially lasts until December, to have a close-to-average number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues the season outlooks with probabilities, not exact numbers of storms. Outlooks list the probability for a normal amount of activity and for more or less activity than normal.
The latest CPC probabilities:
— 50 percent for an average or “near-normal” season.
— 40 percent for a below-normal season.
— 10 percent for an above-normal season.
CPC’s outlook lists a 70 percent chance the season will have seven to 11 named storms. Of those, three to six would be hurricanes and one to two would be major hurricanes, if the prediction is accurate.
The main change from the outlook issued in May is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes, a NOAA spokesman said in a statement on the update.
Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said CPC forecasters define “normal” seasons from the average number and type of storms each year since 1950.
Although U.S. hurricane records go back to 1851, many storms may not have been detected before hurricane reconnaissance flights started in 1944 and weather satellites came into use in 1966, Feltgen said
One reason the season may not be as active as others is the weather phenomenon called El Niño. Last month climate scientists said El Niño conditions — warmer than usual temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near South America — had developed.
Gerry Bell, the CPC’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, said, “El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics.
“El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms,” Bell said in NOAA’s statement.
“El Niño may mean fewer storms compared to recent seasons, but it doesn’t mean you can let your guard down,” said Jack Hayes, director of the National Weather Service. “History shows that hurricanes can strike during an El Niño.”
Hayes identified hurricanes Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, Bob in 1991, Danny in 1997 and Lili in 2002, that struck in El Niño years. Betsy was a Category 3 hurricane that made a direct hit on Key Largo.
NOAA scientists also said the “calm start” to the season “is not a reliable indicator of the overall activity for the entire season. “
South Floridians remember the devastation of the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, which overall had a below-normal number of named storms and hurricanes, and the first storm did not form until late August. But that storm was Hurricane Andrew, which hit Homestead as a Category 5 catastrophe.
“These outlooks are extremely valuable when determining cycles and trends for the season, however they don’t tell us when the next storm will occur or where it may strike,” the NOAA statement quoted FEMA administrator Craig Fugate as saying.
“It only takes one storm to put a community at risk. That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits, including developing a family disaster plan. By taking a few simple steps now we can help ensure that we are better prepared and that our first responders are able to focus on our most vulnerable citizens.”
NOAA scientists don’t try to predict if — or where — potential storms will strike land in their seasonal outlooks. When forecasters are tracking active systems, they use computer models and analysis of weather conditions to make landfall predictions that are accurate three to five days in advance at most.
