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There's a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms this hurricane season, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three of them major.
So said the National Oceanic and Administration Atmospheric on Thursday, when it released its latest forecast for the storm season.
It's close to the forecast issued earlier by the experts at Colorado State University, who say to expect six hurricanes, two of them major. Major hurricanes are Category 3 or above, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
"This outlook is a guide to the overall expected seasonal activity. However, the outlook is not just about the numbers, it's also about taking action," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook. Even a near- or below-normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes one landfalling storm to make it a bad season."
Shaping NOAA's seasonal outlook is the possibility of competing climate factors.
Supporting more activity this season are conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, which include enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.
But Atlantic hurricane activity could be reduced if the El Nino weather pattern develops in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer or if ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic remain cooler than normal.
For official hurricane information, click here for the National Hurricane Center.