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Emergency chief: Evacuation was right call

Ike ultimately dealt little damage

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acrean@keynoter.com

Posted - Wednesday, September 10, 2008 09:03 AM EDT

Frustrated residents and business owners might blame too much hype for the early evacuation of the Keys for Hurricane Ike. But Monroe County Emergency Management Director Irene Toner says there were valid and complex reasons for the call to get people out.

Tourists were told to leave Saturday morning and residents Sunday morning. The decision was made during a 2 p.m. Friday conference call among emergency managers.

At the time, Ike was a Category 3 hurricane with many tracking models, including the National Hurricane Center's official forecast, pointing the storm on a course through the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southern Bahamas -- and then toward the Keys.

But the only effect Ike had on the Keys was tropical storm-force winds and some heavy rain Monday and Tuesday.

Few residents evacuated, says Sheriff's Office spokeswoman Becky Herrin. However, she believes many were ready to go on a moment's notice based on the large number of homes shuttered.

Toner said that following conference calls with officials from Miami-Dade and Broward counties, an evacuation call was the only way to go.

"We had to factor in the big picture," she said.

That picture, she said, was an additional 500,000 people on the mainland that might have been evacuated, causing major problems on the roads if the Keys weren't evacuated first.

"Those counties' strategies were based on what was out there, and they were planning to evacuate their residents Monday afternoon," Toner said.

"Our biggest concern was the traffic bottleneck at Florida City," she said.

By Sunday, the storm track had changed -- it headed well south over Cuba -- and Miami-Dade and Broward counties were no longer planning to evacuate.

Monroe County Mayor Mario Di Gennaro says his pro-business stance means that the last thing he wanted to do was jump the gun on the evacuation.

"But we were facing a possible Category 4 storm crossing the Seven Mile Bridge," he said. "I am the last one in the world to want to call an evacuation, but there's no way I would contradict the experts.

"Our decisions are based on the latest weather forecasts," Toner said. "We usually hold off until the last minute to make evacuation decisions."

She said that initially, they hoped to wait until Sunday to evacuate the tourists. But when Miami-Dade and Broward counties came into Ike's so-called cone of possibility, Monroe officials felt the need to get Keys residents through the area first.

Evacuations are usually phased, starting with tourists and residents of mobile homes and low-lying areas. After that, residents are ordered out on a regional basis. Key West and the Lower Keys are told to leave first, followed by the Middle Keys, then the Upper Keys. The only way to get those phases completed before a Monday evacuation of the mainland counties was by starting the resident evacuation at 8 a.m. Sunday, Toner said.

"I'm damned if I do and damned if I don't," Di Gennaro said Monday. "But if you look at the television right now and see what's happening in Cuba, you can see we made the right decision. If that storm moved just 20 or 30 miles to the north, it would be disastrous for the Keys."

"We can't make a mistake," Toner said. "We are certainly in the mind frame to be flexible. If conditions had changed, we would call for making some changes."